class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # 航班延误分析及管理启示 ## 数据分析的作用 ### 吴燕丰 ### 2018/11/11 --- # 内容 -- - 航班产生的运营数据 -- - 航班延误统计分析 -- - 延误波及效应及其管理启示 -- - 航班运营数据的可能应用方向 --- # 航班产生的运营数据 航班甘特图 .center[] 航班计划 V.S. 航班实际执行 .pull-left[ - 计划起飞时间 - 计划到达时间 ] .pull-right[ - 实际起飞时间 - 实际到达时间 ] --- # 航班产生的运营数据 <div id="htmlwidget-71caa13a9a4ce5cdbc77" style="width:100%;height:auto;" class="datatables html-widget"></div> <script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-71caa13a9a4ce5cdbc77">{"x":{"filter":"none","fillContainer":false,"data":[["1","2","3","4","5","6","7","8","9","10","11","12","13","14","15","16","17","18","19","20","21","22","23","24","25","26","27","28","29","30","31","32","33","34","35","36","37","38","39","40","41","42","43","44","45","46","47","48","49","50","51","52","53","54","55","56","57","58","59","60","61","62","63","64","65","66","67","68","69","70","71","72","73","74","75","76","77","78","79","80","81","82","83","84","85","86","87","88","89","90","91","92","93","94","95","96","97","98","99","100"],["KN2985 ","KN2906 ","KN5985 ","MU5793 ","MU5992 ","FM9142 ","MU2129 ","MU2255 ","MU9747 ","MU5714 ","FM9158 ","MU5181 ","MU5138 ","MU535 ","MU2035 ","MU5183 ","MU5693 ","MU2102 ","MU5636 ","MU5102 ","MU2865 ","MU2460 ","MU2467 ","FM9108 ","MU2104 ","MU2573 ","MU5104 ","MU277 ","MU2862 ","MU2569 ","MU5292 ","MU5106 ","MU525 ","MU5228 ","MU2949 ","MU563 ","MU2078 ","MU716 ","MU5966 ","MU2913 ","MU2903 ","MU2971 ","MU2761 ","MU2947 ","MU5281 ","MU2427 ","MU2251 ","MU5402 ","MU2495 ","MU5860 ","MU2471 ","MU2435 ","MU5296 ","MU2220 ","MU2806 ","MU5595 ","MU5443 ","MU2005 ","MU5499 ","MU5653 ","MU2685Z","MU5406 ","MU5321 ","MU5279 ","MU2658 ","MU5404 ","MU5234 ","MU5842 ","MU2295 ","MU730 ","MU2060 ","MU9727 ","MU5859 ","MU9735 ","MU5662 ","MU2787 ","MU2801 ","MU2793 ","MU5674 ","MU2773 ","MU5667 ","MU756 ","MU272 ","MU208 ","KN5969 ","KN2819 ","MU2426 ","MU9644 ","KN5305 ","MU532 ","MU587 ","MU2046 ","FM9206 ","FM9280 ","MU528 ","MU294 ","MU5232 ","MU9726 ","MU2324 ","MU2621 "],["2018/1/17 1:45","2018/1/16 23:50","2018/1/17 2:20","2018/1/17 2:15","2018/1/17 2:40","2018/1/17 2:05","2018/1/16 22:30","2018/1/16 22:40","2018/1/16 22:40","2018/1/16 22:40","2018/1/16 22:45","2018/1/16 22:50","2018/1/16 23:00","2018/1/16 23:20","2018/1/16 23:25","2018/1/16 23:35","2018/1/16 23:50","2018/1/16 23:50","2018/1/17 0:00","2018/1/17 0:00","2018/1/17 0:05","2018/1/17 0:05","2018/1/17 0:15","2018/1/17 0:30","2018/1/17 0:35","2018/1/17 0:40","2018/1/17 1:00","2018/1/17 1:15","2018/1/17 1:20","2018/1/17 1:50","2018/1/17 1:55","2018/1/17 2:00","2018/1/17 2:10","2018/1/17 2:20","2018/1/17 2:25","2018/1/17 2:40","2018/1/17 2:40","2018/1/17 1:40","2018/1/17 1:50","2018/1/16 23:00","2018/1/16 23:15","2018/1/16 23:20","2018/1/16 23:40","2018/1/17 1:20","2018/1/16 22:20","2018/1/16 22:25","2018/1/16 23:15","2018/1/16 23:25","2018/1/16 23:30","2018/1/16 23:40","2018/1/16 23:40","2018/1/16 23:55","2018/1/17 0:00","2018/1/17 0:05","2018/1/17 0:20","2018/1/17 0:45","2018/1/17 1:00","2018/1/17 1:05","2018/1/17 1:05","2018/1/17 1:15","2018/1/17 1:15","2018/1/17 1:25","2018/1/17 1:45","2018/1/17 1:45","2018/1/17 2:00","2018/1/17 2:00","2018/1/17 2:20","2018/1/17 2:30","2018/1/17 2:40","2018/1/17 0:40","2018/1/17 1:00","2018/1/17 0:40","2018/1/17 2:20","2018/1/17 2:20","2018/1/16 23:25","2018/1/16 23:40","2018/1/16 22:55","2018/1/16 23:45","2018/1/17 1:05","2018/1/17 2:15","2018/1/17 2:35","2018/1/16 16:45","2018/1/17 1:55","2018/1/16 20:25","2018/1/16 23:10","2018/1/16 23:25","2018/1/16 23:50","2018/1/17 0:50","2018/1/17 1:20","2018/1/17 0:50","2018/1/16 23:55","2018/1/17 0:35","2018/1/17 1:15","2018/1/17 1:40","2018/1/17 0:10","2018/1/17 0:15","2018/1/16 16:05","2018/1/16 22:35","2018/1/16 22:35","2018/1/16 22:40"],["2018/1/17 1:49","2018/1/16 23:50","2018/1/17 2:35","2018/1/17 2:20","2018/1/17 2:47","2018/1/17 1:57","2018/1/16 22:37","2018/1/16 22:41","2018/1/16 22:47","2018/1/16 22:50","2018/1/16 23:04","2018/1/16 22:56","2018/1/16 23:09","2018/1/17 0:33","2018/1/16 23:39","2018/1/16 23:46","2018/1/17 0:01","2018/1/16 23:59","2018/1/17 0:29","2018/1/17 0:21","2018/1/17 0:08","2018/1/17 0:18","2018/1/17 0:24","2018/1/17 0:48","2018/1/17 0:46","2018/1/17 0:54","2018/1/17 1:18","2018/1/17 2:26","2018/1/17 2:21","2018/1/17 2:00","2018/1/17 2:02","2018/1/17 2:16","2018/1/17 2:41","2018/1/17 3:08","2018/1/17 2:52","2018/1/17 3:15","2018/1/17 2:53","2018/1/17 1:40","2018/1/17 2:07","2018/1/16 23:27","2018/1/16 23:17","2018/1/16 23:59","2018/1/16 23:42","2018/1/17 2:21","2018/1/16 22:57","2018/1/16 23:00","2018/1/16 23:45","2018/1/16 23:43","2018/1/16 23:57","2018/1/17 0:03","2018/1/17 0:06","2018/1/17 0:26","2018/1/17 0:28","2018/1/17 0:38","2018/1/17 0:46","2018/1/17 1:14","2018/1/17 1:17","2018/1/17 1:41","2018/1/17 1:34","2018/1/17 4:22","NULL","2018/1/17 1:51","2018/1/17 1:58","2018/1/17 2:16","2018/1/17 2:10","2018/1/17 2:05","2018/1/17 2:27","2018/1/17 2:36","2018/1/17 2:47","2018/1/17 0:45","2018/1/17 1:17","2018/1/17 0:55","2018/1/17 2:31","2018/1/17 2:39","2018/1/16 23:43","2018/1/16 23:46","2018/1/16 23:54","2018/1/16 23:56","2018/1/17 1:06","2018/1/17 2:21","2018/1/17 2:37","2018/1/16 17:32","2018/1/17 2:18","2018/1/17 0:54","2018/1/16 23:16","2018/1/16 23:24","2018/1/16 23:53","2018/1/17 0:53","2018/1/17 1:31","2018/1/17 0:56","2018/1/17 0:04","2018/1/17 0:57","2018/1/17 1:30","2018/1/17 8:15","2018/1/17 0:03","2018/1/17 0:15","2018/1/16 16:29","2018/1/16 23:01","2018/1/16 22:54","2018/1/16 22:57"],["2018/1/17 2:45","2018/1/17 1:15","2018/1/17 3:45","2018/1/17 5:15","2018/1/17 3:50","2018/1/17 4:25","2018/1/17 1:15","2018/1/17 0:20","2018/1/17 2:50","2018/1/17 2:50","2018/1/17 1:15","2018/1/17 2:25","2018/1/17 1:15","2018/1/17 0:50","2018/1/17 3:25","2018/1/17 2:00","2018/1/17 2:00","2018/1/17 2:00","2018/1/17 2:00","2018/1/17 2:15","2018/1/17 2:55","2018/1/17 2:25","2018/1/17 2:10","2018/1/17 2:50","2018/1/17 2:50","2018/1/17 4:30","2018/1/17 3:15","2018/1/17 2:50","2018/1/17 3:20","2018/1/17 5:45","2018/1/17 3:15","2018/1/17 4:20","2018/1/17 5:00","2018/1/17 3:55","2018/1/17 4:35","2018/1/17 4:55","2018/1/17 5:40","2018/1/17 12:00","2018/1/17 3:00","2018/1/17 0:45","2018/1/17 1:45","2018/1/17 1:50","2018/1/17 1:40","2018/1/17 4:00","2018/1/16 23:55","2018/1/16 23:35","2018/1/17 1:45","2018/1/17 2:05","2018/1/17 1:10","2018/1/17 1:25","2018/1/17 1:00","2018/1/17 1:45","2018/1/17 3:05","2018/1/17 2:50","2018/1/17 2:45","2018/1/17 2:55","2018/1/17 2:00","2018/1/17 3:45","2018/1/17 3:45","2018/1/17 3:25","2018/1/17 2:35","2018/1/17 4:15","2018/1/17 4:05","2018/1/17 4:10","2018/1/17 3:50","2018/1/17 4:45","2018/1/17 4:50","2018/1/17 4:10","2018/1/17 4:40","2018/1/17 3:25","2018/1/17 3:40","2018/1/17 4:15","2018/1/17 4:00","2018/1/17 4:40","2018/1/17 1:25","2018/1/17 1:35","2018/1/17 0:20","2018/1/17 2:00","2018/1/17 3:00","2018/1/17 3:55","2018/1/17 4:40","2018/1/16 22:50","2018/1/17 5:50","2018/1/17 11:20","2018/1/17 0:40","2018/1/17 1:30","2018/1/17 1:05","2018/1/17 2:10","2018/1/17 2:50","2018/1/17 2:45","2018/1/17 1:20","2018/1/17 3:00","2018/1/17 2:30","2018/1/17 2:55","2018/1/17 3:00","2018/1/17 3:00","2018/1/16 17:45","2018/1/17 1:15","2018/1/17 1:20","2018/1/17 0:45"],["2018/1/17 2:45","2018/1/17 0:47","2018/1/17 3:34","2018/1/17 4:52","2018/1/17 3:37","2018/1/17 3:35","2018/1/17 0:58","2018/1/16 23:45","2018/1/17 2:26","2018/1/17 2:33","2018/1/17 0:49","2018/1/17 1:58","2018/1/17 0:50","2018/1/17 1:40","2018/1/17 3:03","2018/1/17 1:32","2018/1/17 1:31","2018/1/17 1:52","2018/1/17 3:10","2018/1/17 2:01","2018/1/17 2:59","2018/1/17 2:10","2018/1/17 1:55","2018/1/17 2:37","2018/1/17 2:34","2018/1/17 4:18","2018/1/17 2:58","2018/1/17 3:22","2018/1/17 3:59","2018/1/17 5:21","2018/1/17 2:55","2018/1/17 3:58","2018/1/17 5:01","2018/1/17 4:13","2018/1/17 4:32","2018/1/17 4:59","2018/1/17 5:15","2018/1/17 11:35","2018/1/17 2:58","2018/1/17 0:58","2018/1/17 1:29","2018/1/17 2:02","2018/1/17 1:30","2018/1/17 4:34","2018/1/17 0:21","2018/1/17 0:04","2018/1/17 1:48","2018/1/17 1:51","2018/1/17 1:01","2018/1/17 1:15","2018/1/17 1:09","2018/1/17 1:58","2018/1/17 2:33","2018/1/17 2:45","2018/1/17 2:42","2018/1/17 3:15","2018/1/17 1:56","2018/1/17 3:58","2018/1/17 3:38","2018/1/17 6:15","NULL","2018/1/17 4:07","2018/1/17 3:51","2018/1/17 4:12","2018/1/17 3:43","2018/1/17 4:18","2018/1/17 4:02","2018/1/17 3:42","2018/1/17 4:22","2018/1/17 3:18","2018/1/17 3:54","2018/1/17 3:58","2018/1/17 3:40","2018/1/17 4:35","2018/1/17 1:11","2018/1/17 1:16","2018/1/17 0:57","2018/1/17 1:47","2018/1/17 2:44","2018/1/17 3:56","2018/1/17 4:28","2018/1/16 22:56","2018/1/17 5:39","2018/1/17 15:10","2018/1/17 0:15","2018/1/17 1:21","2018/1/17 0:52","2018/1/17 2:04","2018/1/17 2:32","2018/1/17 2:37","2018/1/17 1:00","2018/1/17 2:54","2018/1/17 2:28","2018/1/17 9:21","2018/1/17 2:18","2018/1/17 2:31","2018/1/16 17:37","2018/1/17 1:13","2018/1/17 1:02","2018/1/17 0:10"]],"container":"<table class=\"display\">\n <thead>\n <tr>\n <th> <\/th>\n <th>航班号<\/th>\n <th>计飞<\/th>\n <th>实飞<\/th>\n <th>计到<\/th>\n <th>实到<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n<\/table>","options":{"pageLength":5,"order":[],"autoWidth":false,"orderClasses":false,"columnDefs":[{"orderable":false,"targets":0}],"lengthMenu":[5,10,25,50,100]}},"evals":[],"jsHooks":[]}</script> --- # 航班延误统计分析 .pull-left[ 相关管理部门，可能关心的问题： - 哪些机场航班延误比较多？ - 哪些时段航班延误比较多？ - 哪些机队航班延误比较多？ ] .pull-right[ |延误时间（分钟）|延误等级| |:--------------:|:------:| | 0 < t <= 30|1| | 30 < t <= 60|2| | 60 < t <= 120|4| | 120 < t <= 240|6| | 240 < t <= `\(\infty\)`<sup>*</sup>|8| ] .footnote[ [*] `\(\infty\)`：无穷大。 ] --- ### 按机场和时间区间延误统计<sup>*</sup> <div id="htmlwidget-61a40a5eace34413d9d2" style="width:100%;height:auto;" class="datatables html-widget"></div> <script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-61a40a5eace34413d9d2">{"x":{"filter":"none","fillContainer":false,"data":[["1","2","3","4","5","6","7","8","9","10"],["PVG","KMG","XIY","SHA","PEK","NKG","TYN","CAN","CKG","CTU"],[13875,13818,13725,11153,10733,10595,6503,6190,5621,5209],[2446,1841,1981,976,1452,994,1180,539,778,697],[6053,4024,4793,5832,3319,4302,2366,2756,1669,2411],[5376,7953,6951,4345,5962,5299,2957,2895,3174,2101]],"container":"<table class=\"display\">\n <thead>\n <tr>\n <th> <\/th>\n <th>Airport<\/th>\n <th>总延误<\/th>\n <th>上午延误<\/th>\n <th>下午延误<\/th>\n <th>晚上延误<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n<\/table>","options":{"pageLength":7,"columnDefs":[{"className":"dt-right","targets":[2,3,4,5]},{"orderable":false,"targets":0}],"order":[],"autoWidth":false,"orderClasses":false,"lengthMenu":[7,10,25,50,100]}},"evals":[],"jsHooks":[]}</script> .footnote[ [*] 2017年度夏秋航季延误统计结果（MU） ] --- ### 按延误原因延误统计<sup>*</sup> <div id="htmlwidget-f5b3a54a46eae89949d5" style="width:100%;height:auto;" class="datatables html-widget"></div> <script type="application/json" data-for="htmlwidget-f5b3a54a46eae89949d5">{"x":{"filter":"none","fillContainer":false,"data":[["1","2","3","4","5","6","7","8","9","10","11","12","13","14","15","16","17","18","19","20","21","22","23","24","25","26","27","28","29","30","31","32","33","34","35","36","37","38","39","40","41","42","43","44","45","46","47","48","49","50","51","52","53","54","55","56","57","58","59","60","61","62","63","64","65","66","67","68","69","70","71","72","73","74","75","76","77","78","79","80"],["SHA","SHA","SHA","SHA","SHA","SHA","SHA","SHA","SHA","SHA","SHA","SHA","SHA","SHA","SHA","SHA","PVG","PVG","PVG","PVG","PVG","PVG","PVG","PVG","PVG","PVG","PVG","PVG","PVG","PVG","PVG","PVG","XIY","XIY","XIY","XIY","XIY","XIY","XIY","XIY","XIY","XIY","XIY","XIY","XIY","XIY","XIY","XIY","PEK","PEK","PEK","PEK","PEK","PEK","PEK","PEK","PEK","PEK","PEK","PEK","PEK","PEK","PEK","PEK","KMG","KMG","KMG","KMG","KMG","KMG","KMG","KMG","KMG","KMG","KMG","KMG","KMG","KMG","KMG","KMG"],[3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10],[0,13,11,4,9,11,8,7,0,7,4,1,4,8,2,3,0,11,9,9,22,11,2,6,0,4,3,5,13,6,2,2,0,5,6,9,13,11,6,4,0,4,3,3,10,8,5,3,0,10,8,2,11,8,0,3,0,7,3,2,8,3,0,1,0,7,7,5,7,19,9,2,0,2,4,3,3,6,7,1],[1,185,279,320,335,284,40,10,0,97,169,174,171,146,15,0,2,139,193,218,225,245,39,2,2,73,91,138,98,117,15,0,1,52,68,86,215,165,14,2,0,16,28,39,93,71,5,1,0,69,62,141,266,117,19,0,0,36,36,64,161,58,14,0,1,39,39,63,100,63,22,6,1,14,11,24,54,25,5,1],[3,51,42,49,35,91,19,10,1,39,26,34,19,50,10,7,1,49,44,46,26,78,4,2,0,29,30,35,12,56,2,0,0,28,27,25,27,52,11,26,0,16,15,15,17,26,4,9,0,22,19,20,59,30,21,7,0,8,10,9,53,15,14,3,1,26,12,18,37,36,13,12,1,11,4,8,27,24,6,6]],"container":"<table class=\"display\">\n <thead>\n <tr>\n <th> <\/th>\n <th>Airport<\/th>\n <th>Month<\/th>\n <th>飞机故障<\/th>\n <th>流控原因<\/th>\n <th>天气原因<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n<\/table>","options":{"pageLength":6,"columnDefs":[{"className":"dt-right","targets":[2,3,4,5]},{"orderable":false,"targets":0}],"order":[],"autoWidth":false,"orderClasses":false,"lengthMenu":[6,10,25,50,100]}},"evals":[],"jsHooks":[]}</script> .footnote[ [*] 基于2017年夏秋航季航班数据统计 ] --- # 延误时间分类和归因 主动延误和被动延误（源发和继发？）  -- .pull-left[ |航班|实际延误|主动|被动| |:--:|:------:|:------:|:------:| |MU5868|30分钟|30分钟|0分钟| |MU5913|25分钟|0分钟|25分钟| |MU5914|20分钟|0分钟|20分钟| ] -- .pull-right[ |主动+波及延误| |:-------:| |30+25+20| |0分钟| |0分钟| ] --- # 航班延误的波及效应 .center[  ] --- # 多重波及导致的繁杂 .center[  ] --- # 管理启示 - 从业务流程等管理角度，分析“**波源**”产生的根源 - 加强对“**波源**”相应瓶颈业务的资源保障，杜绝或缓解波及效应 - 持续监督（通过统计分析），不断改进 --- # 航班运营数据的作用 - 还原航班调度历史状态 - 事后复盘 - 进行无时间约束航班恢复 - 对不确定性运营环境进行统计 - 基于事后统计分析，提供运营管理建议： - 航班延误减少建议 - 帮班计划排版改进建议 - ··· --- class: center, middle # 谢谢！ 请指正  